Outlook for the second half of 2010
outlook for the second half of 2010: performance is difficult to exceed expectations
1, raw material prices are adjusted at a high level
2, cost drives paper prices up
3, performance is flat
investment strategy: looking for definite growth in the flat standard configuration
1, the early review of 2009 rebounded quarter by quarter, The rising momentum slowed down in Q1 20101.1 the industry recovery process in the annual strategy report of the industry in 2010, demand increase drives profit growth, pointed out that the industry recovery has three stages:
the first stage: de stocking, demand recovery and gross profit margin increase. In 2008q4, the inventory of manufacturing enterprises increased sharply, and the operating rate, paper price, raw materials and gross profit margin fell sharply; In 2009q1, enterprises took the initiative to destock, and the paper price stopped falling and stabilized; In 2009, the downstream demand of q2-q3 gradually recovered, the product price increased, the raw material cost was low, and the gross profit rate began to increase. The characteristic curve of the instantaneous measurement and recorded data rose during the impact process
the second stage: the operating rate increases, the cost rises, and the gross profit margin stagnates and rises. Since 2009q4, the operating rate of production enterprises has continued to increase, the demand for raw materials has increased, the inventory of low-priced raw materials of production enterprises has long been digested, the cost has risen, the price has risen driven by the cost, and the gross profit margin has remained unchanged or decreased slightly. However, the sales volume will continue to increase with the increase of industry demand, and the overall profit will still rise. At this stage, we think it can continue to the first half of this year
stage III: the supply increases, the price of raw materials continues to rise, and the gross profit margin begins to be squeezed. In the second half of 2010, judging from the current investment in fixed assets in the industry, there will be more new production capacity next year, especially for coated paper, box board paper and cultural paper. If the demand cannot exceed the expected performance, the balance between supply and demand will be broken
1.21 start construction of 1 set of 8506 continuous rolling, 1 set of 850 cold acid line and 1 set of 1450 Hot Acid line; The annual production and sales volume in 2009 increased quarter by quarter, and the growth rate slowed down in 2010q1.
the production and sales volume of machine-made paper continued to increase, and the industry inventory was in the low lifetime protection position.
. In 2009qq1, the output of machine-made paper increased by -1.90%, 7.74%, 15.57%, 25.19% and 21.06% year-on-year respectively, and the sales increased by 1.59%, 8.30%, 18.75%, 26.15% and 19.4% year-on-year respectively. Pay attention not to make the probe 1 contact the two measuring pins by 9%
in 2009, the industrial inventory decreased quarter by quarter. In 2010q1, the industrial production and sales rate was 98.50%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4 percentage points, a month on month decrease of 0.9 percentage points, and the inventory increased by 6% year-on-year