The hottest rubber price fell to 19600 yuan per to

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The price of rubber fell to 19600 yuan/ton. Hainan rubber farmers are not worried but happy.

the price of natural rubber has fluctuated sharply this year, from the highest price of 30000 yuan/ton to the current 19600 yuan/ton. But in Hainan agricultural reclamation, the largest natural rubber production base in China, rubber farmers are not worried but happy

at the beginning of the year, the International Rubber Association predicted that the annual gap would reach 100000 tons, which greatly stimulated the rubber to reach the historical level of 30000 yuan/ton

however, with the decline of non-ferrous metals, the world entering a cycle of interest rate hikes, weak demand and other factors, the rubber fell from 30000 yuan/ton to the current 19600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33%, and Tokyo rubber also fell from 324 yen/kg to the current 240 yen/kg, a decrease of 26%. HuJiao rebounded to a certain extent between 23000 yuan/ton and 25000 yuan/ton, but then it fell unilaterally, indicating the market's recognition of its value return, especially after it fell below the psychological gap of 20000 yuan/ton at one stroke, which indicates that its decline will continue

decline is beneficial to sales

the price of rubber has fallen. Hainan agricultural reclamation, as the largest natural rubber production base in China, is theoretically unwilling to see, but the reality is just the opposite. According to relevant sources of Hainan agricultural reclamation, in the early stage, due to the high price of rubber, most enterprises using rubber "look at it and sigh", look at it more and buy less, and even use imported rubber or other alternative rubber, which makes China's rubber market 1 The color of the paint of the electronic tensile testing machine is unsightly and generous. It is in the embarrassment of having a price but no market. Hainan Nongken rubber farmers actually do not get much benefit from it. There are strict regulations on the types, quantities and tolerances of environmental factors. As the rubber price falls from a high level, the purchasing enthusiasm of rubber enterprises has greatly increased, which can be seen from the surge in transactions in the e-commerce market of Hainan rubber spot. At present, the rubber price is still far higher than the production cost of agricultural reclamation rubber. Therefore, the decline in rubber price is beneficial to sales. Why worry

inventory is still increasing

at present, the International Rubber Research Organization (IRSG) has adjusted its published global natural rubber supply and demand data, and it is expected that the supply gap will be changed to supply surplus, and the margin of surplus will be as high as 180000 tons. In terms of supply, the output of Indonesia and Vietnam increased significantly this year, of which Vietnam increased by 50% year-on-year. In terms of demand, the global economic growth slowed down, and the demand for natural rubber in the United States and Japan decreased by 15% year-on-year, resulting in a surplus in supply

in China, the output of Yunnan also increased significantly, with an average daily output increase of 25%. Although Hainan agricultural reclamation decreased by 30% year-on-year due to natural disasters, the inventory of Hainan agricultural reclamation is also maintained at about 20000 tons. According to the 36000 ton inventory of the Shanghai Stock Exchange last week, Yunnan also has about 60000 tons. If it is found that the noise of the high and low temperature test box comes from the tightening machine, the national public inventory will remain at about 116000 tons. If you add the private inventory, there may be nearly 200000 tons of inventory

demand fell

after three years of rapid growth, in 2006, as the world entered a cycle of interest rate hikes and continued macro-control, the global economy began to slow down. Among them, the U.S. economic data began to decline in June, and the suspension of interest rate hikes in the United States is a good example. In addition to the inevitable slowdown of the U.S. economy, Europe will stagnate, Japan may also slow down, and China and India in developing countries will also slow down to a certain extent. Therefore, it will also lead to a certain decline in global demand for rubber, especially after the global rubber factories move to China, if the consumption of the United States and Japan declines, it will inevitably affect the global consumption level

where is the current bottom of natural rubber after a sharp decline for more than two months? Is the bull market over

deputy general manager of Haikou Business Department of daotong futures Ge Weihua, an authoritative expert on rubber in Hainan, said in answer to the question: "although the demand for rubber has shrunk since July this year, it is now in the peak season of rubber production, and the rubber price is also at a relatively high price, so rubber is still in a downward trend. In trading, we should follow the principle of taking advantage of the trend, and where the bottom is should be determined by the real supply and demand relationship in the market. 7 - the position of the pressure head." Jinyuwei, assistant general manager of daotong futures Haikou business department, also recognized this

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