The hottest rubber price has entered the rising st

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The rubber price has entered the rising stage, and the global market is still in short supply.

since the beginning of the new year 2007, the vigorous consumption and reserve demand from China have made the rubber price soar to 24600 yuan/ton again. With the arrival of the peak supply season in summer, the price of rubber will also fall seasonally to varying degrees

we believe that the decline adjustment was launched in the second quarter of 2007 and has basically reached the target level. In the second half of 2007, the bull market will rise again, and will continue to refresh the historical high

fundamental analysis

at present, it is the time when the negative pressure is the most concentrated, so beware of inducing empty. Since the second quarter of 2007, China's macro-control and monetary tightening; The US economic data is weak, and the market is worried that the global economy will decline; The advent of the peak season of rubber tapping has brought pressure on the market to partially oversupply. However, at present, it is only the time when the pressure of local bad news is the greatest. Beware of inducing bad news

after excluding seasonal dependence and the correction that supply exceeds demand in the previous period, whether to strengthen strategic thinking ability and enter the stage of oversupply also depends on weather conditions. In the case of slowing demand growth, if the weather is normal, the supply pressure is large. There are still variables in the Tianjiao market in the future. First, the weather factors in July and August in the future; Second, the impact of high oil prices on commodities. At present, the rubber price is seriously oversold and the supply pressure is large, which is essentially the driving force of overdraft and short selling

China's apparent consumption is strong. As the world's largest rubber consumer, China's apparent consumption performance is strong, which drives domestic and foreign demand to maintain a growth trend. At present, China is in the stage of urbanization and new industrialization, and the economic development needs a lot of basic raw materials. The investment growth brought by the 2008 Olympic Games and the 2010 WorldExpo has increased the demand for basic raw materials

we believe that the global rubber market in 2007 is still in short supply

with the touch map control interface, the global natural rubber output in 2007 was 9.252 million tons, including 3.189 million tons in Thailand, 2.231 million tons in Indonesia and 422000 tons in China; In 2007, the global consumption of natural rubber was 9.296 million tons, including 2.405 million tons in China, 1.611 million tons in the United States and 877000 tons in Japan. In 2007, the global rubber market was still in short supply

the depreciation of the US dollar is another important factor in the rise of rubber prices. The weakness of the US dollar is an important factor that cannot be ignored. Every sharp depreciation of the US dollar in history will be accompanied by a significant rise in metal prices. On July 21, 2005, the Chinese government took a surprise to announce that the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar increased by 2%. This will have a far-reaching and important impact on the global economy and trade, and the impact of RMB on the US dollar will be lasting and solid

technical trend analysis

the super strong upward trend of rubber prices was curbed in mid-2006. But the general trend has not changed. From the perspective of the cycle theory: the seasonal production law of rubber, the peak season of annual production of rubber prices see the annual low. From the perspective of long-term cycle theory, rubber prices are repeating the three commodity bull markets (year; year; year) that occurred in the 20th century, with each bull market lasting a little more than 17 years on average

this bull market, which began in 1999, will continue until around 2015. There are still nine years to drive this super bull market

analysis of investment opportunities

the global economy has a solid foundation and the general trend has not changed. China's rubber demand will increase significantly in 2007. It is difficult for the supply of the rubber market to improve beyond expectations, and the tension between supply and demand has not changed substantially. It is expected that the rubber price will rise again in the second half of this year, hitting 24800 yuan/ton in October 2007. At the beginning of 2008, it may reach a new high of 32000 yuan/ton

we can make the following operation plan: take the HJ 0711 contract as an example, build the warehouse step by step between 18800 yuan/ton and 19200 yuan/ton, and the cost of building the warehouse is around 19000 yuan/ton; The overweight position is at the line of 22000 yuan/ton; The first stop loss position is 18300 yuan/ton, and the limit stop loss position is 17600 yuan/ton; The first target position is 21900 yuan/ton, and the intermediate target of this round of increase is 24600 yuan/ton. If the operation is carried out according to the above plan, the expected risk profit ratio is 1: the two healing agents are in contact with each other at the fracture position for about 6, and the maximum return is about 2.5 times of the initial capital

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